MEN IN BLACK KNOCKS AVENGERS OFF TOP SPOT

Will Smith is back on the big screen in the 3rd installment of the “Men In Black ” franchise.

men in black3 poster*Based on Friday’s receipts, “MIB3″ will knock “The Avengers” out of the top spot for the first time in 4 weeks and will  be new box-office champ, according Deadline’s Nikki Finke.

And, yes, Sony’s new #1 Memorial Weekend movie Men In Black 3 will beat Marvel’s The Avengers which is starting its 4th week in domestic release.

But I can’t ignore rival studio claims that the 3D scifi laugher is not looking quite as strong as Hollywood thought for North America or overseas.

At first this just seemed to be sour grapes. But now it’s clear that the 3D scifi laugher playing in very wide release of 4,248 theaters looks to open in the range of $18M-$20M today and only $65M to $75M for the 4-day holiday.

That’s not anywhere close to the $90M which Hollywood thought this popular franchise could open its threequel.

This now makes the 5th major studio release that has underperformed at the start of Summer 2012, though not as badly as the others. Even overseas, depending on who’s analyzing, MIB3 is a mixed bag.

plus, demonstrating more trouble for Hollywood, overall moviegoing of $190M is down a huge -32% from last year’s record.

Overseas, MIB3 was off to a better start, and Sony is projecting it to take in an estimated $202M worldwide total during its first few days of release in 106 territories. Of that, IMAX sales contributed approximately $12M to the global cume, which is 20% higher than the previous record for a worldwide Memorial Day release because of aggressive IMAX building overseas.

Sony said MIB3 was #1 in 104 countries. In this country, yes, MIB3 finally vanquished three-time #1  Marvel’s The Avengers which was starting its 4th week in domestic release. Even so there’s continuing good news for Disney’s 3D superhero assembly: it crossed $500M on Saturday, reaching the mark in just 23 days which is setting a new speed record (better than Avatarwhich took 32 days).

In 3,918 theaters, it’s a solid #2 with about a $36.9M three-day weekend and a $48.5M Memorial Holiday. It is currently the #4 film of all time globally and domestically and is currently the #5 film of all time internationally, passing Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($771M) this weekend.

Even if Avengers weren’t sucking the air out of North American box office, trust me when I say the movie moguls are worried what lies ahead for their films in June after a dismal domestic May…

'Men In Black 3' Poised to Knock Off 'The Avengers'

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